Storm damage is just ONE example of the economic consequences of climate change, and in spite of a clear, economically meaningful, multi-decadal trend, climate change is not considered in most traditional investment analysis. I believe that this is due to three main misconceptions.
Misconception one: We don’t have a good enough forecast to incorporate climate change into investment models.
Misconception two: The costs of climate change will unfold in a linear way and are decades away
Misconception three: Climate’s investment risks and opportunities are limited to Exploration and Production and Renewable energy.
One of the greatest potential areas to reduce GHG emissions is urban design. Today 55% of the world’s population, 4.3 billion people live in cities. By 2050, it is expected to be 68% of the world’s growing population or approximately 6.8 billion people. Cities have a voracious appetite for energy, consuming about 66% of the world’s annual energy, and emitting 70% of its emissions. Making cities more efficient is so important that “Sustainable Cities” is the title of one of the United Nation’s four Sustainable Development Goals focused specifically on climate.
Not only do cities house most of the world’s population and emit the bulk of its GHG emissions, they are disproportionately exposed to the physical impact of climate change. 90% of cities are in coastal regions, with 70% already dealing with the effects of climate change. A July research report from Crowther Lab and ETH Zurich, used state of the art climate models of existing data in a way that they hoped would be more meaningful to urban planners. They used existing science to predict the weather and climate for 520 of the world’s largest cities.
If you moved to San Francisco because you liked its temperate climate, you’ll find that same climate in Seattle in 2050. Sacramento, the capital of California, will have climate more like Irbil, Iran with an average August temperature 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today’s temperatures. Los Angeles’ climate in 2050 can be found today in Hargeisa, Somalia. London’s 2050 climate will look like Barcelona But these are the lucky cities. 115 of the 520 cities will experience weather conditions whereby temperatures, seasonality and precipitation are so variable, there is no current climate like it. This will happen for 16 American cities, including our nation’s capital, Washington D.C.
Preparing these cities for more variable temperature and new climates will require significant new infrastructure and a smarter use of resources. The Internet of Things (IoT) future holds promise for many of those things. Companies like Qualcomm (with its 5G Patents), Acuity Brands (in smart lighting), and Johnson Controls (in smart buildings) are all well positioned to benefit from an accelerated growth trend driven by more efficient and smarter cities.
